Tag Archives: trends

“Normality” post COVID-19

Posted on by

What ever was ‘normal’? It will more then likely depend on your definition of the word, but typically it meant whatever was happening most regularly. For example,  we all know that it is not normal from a health or even human perspective to be overweight but as society has become more psychologically reliant on food and we now have such a high percentage of our pollination being overweight THIS is considered normal.

So, normal for some was affluence, even avarice and without care or concern of others, for some it was abject poverty and disrepair, yet for many of us it was on the scale in between these two extremes.

So should we even be contemplating returning to the old normal? No!

Thinking about returning to an old normal would be a complete waste of time and energy. It would be like trying to turn back time. Things HAVE changed, attitudes have changed, along with fear and anxiety as will as the opportunities that have appeared and the lessons we have learnt – as individuals, groups, cultures and as humanity.

Humans have culturally evolved to acquire knowledge and beliefs through copying others. Although advances in science, religion and society is usually by invention (by looking at the evidence and deciding for ourselves), few people are inclined to this way of thinking, much of the time these same people are ostracised until the majority eventually realise “oh-ah that’s a good idea”.

Plus, we cannot rely on the misinformation and disinformation drafted and distributed by those with a political or self-financial agenda (the trick here is: if you start saying “oh its the XXXX, who are being political, not my team” then you ARE being seduced and deluded). And this is why the “news” can also have such a negative affect on each of us and all of us. Try this to see whether you are like most people or one of the enlightened, intuitive ones: part one – turn on your favourite news channel and then try to DISAGREE with everything they present, part two – now turn on a channel you actually dislike and try to find a way to AGREE with everything they present.

The critical question here is, are you able to use critical thinking and decipher what is actually news (information) form BOTH channels or do you struggle and go back to preferring your original channel because it supports/reinforces your perception of the world without thought or consideration?

Now back to the point, Normality. So the challenge is to make the New Normal better than it was. Keep that which did work for our (humanity’s) benefit and let go of that which added no value or was detrimental. This is an opportunity that only comes around after a major catastrophe, so we need to make the most of  THIS opportunity and not squander it, for we certainly do not want another catastrophe.

Nearly every century there has been a major event that changed the way humanity behaved and progressed – sometimes this was a regression (backwards) as with the ‘Dark Ages” beginning around the 5th century. It is now OUR time to move forward, learn the lessons and become better at being human.

This challenge for the “new”  will rely of ALL of us to step up. Are you up for the challenge or will you sit back, look back and wait for someone else to decide your fate.

 

Other light reading. Some of which I agree with, some not, some is just information:

A new supply chain paradigm

Posted on by

Every generation has had its own global catastrophe, whether caused by ourselves or nature. And as every catastrophe challenges societies and cultures at the time, they also challenge the status quo. Yes, things do and will change.

COVID-19 has laid bare weak links in supply chain around the world. And now all involved in the supply chain are beginning (if they haven’t already) to review, reassess and consider other options.

But, did we really get it all that wrong based on the data and information we had at the time (prior to covid-19)? Definitely, many a BCP written within the last 10 years highlighted a number of weaknesses including those we see now, what we did not count on was the fallout of these – the subsequent events that have made the risks to the supply chain multiply as time goes on. China states it is getting its processes back on line, but the bull-whip effect from the panic buying, hoarding and (likely) government actions to limit continued or even secondary covid-19 events, will take its toll for a while to come.

Markets will change as the psyche of the customer changes, and the supply chain will morph into something completely different to today’s. We will probably see a rapid return to “make/buy local’ and although it will not be a complete shift, it will definitely be the critical components (for manufacturers). This change will become a feedback loop, those in the BRICS group will change their inter-relationships as China’s market/manufacturing changes.

As with any major disruptor – not a new invention or new software – but real disruptor a global one, there will be a repositioning of power, as governments rewrite legislation to control the flow of goods (they are already looking at this), countries lose their attraction as costs to obtain goods increase, manufacturing moves back on-shore as companies lessen their reliance on cheap but long supply chains.

Other considerations for the supply chain will be the environmental risks that are now regularly appearing, such as rampant fires, devastating floods and earthquakes – irrespective of where/why/who, the environment will be a consideration. As will the geopolitical world we have woven for ourselves. Future forecasting and supply chain planning will not be limited to cost mitigation, improved utilisation of resources, reduction in inventories and velocity to market. There will be a multitude of risks that will need to be:

  1. Identified
  2. Classified
  3. Quantified and then
  4. Mitigated as best as possible

As I see it, there will be an increase in local suppliers (although not for everything), there will be an increase in the need for information all along the supply chain prompting an increase in IOT and probably, block-chain, along with advanced forecasting software, including AI and predictive modelling. There will also be a need for more collaboration between partners to enhance efficiency plus much more.

Globalisation, will still be around but not in the way we have become accustomed to. And, although we will return to BAU, it will be a new and for a while a very challenging BAU. This is about Change with a capital “C”, it will be an exciting time, for tomorrow will be driven by those who can think laterally, out-side-the-box, have a variety of experiences, a range of skills and not be attached to the “old ways” – at least for the near future.